Introduction to Probability Management
Probability management is the discipline of communicating and calculating uncertainties as auditable data arrays called Stochastic Information Packets or SIPs. This course provides a basic introduction to the subject.
This course assumes that you are comfortable with Microsoft Excel, but you do not need training in statistics. If you wish to receive a verified certificate, you must download the free SIPmath™ Modeler Tools for Excel from nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org, and it is recommended that you procure The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons, either the 1st or 2nd Edition.
What you will learn
- How to recognize the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are represented by single numbers, usually an average. It explains why so many projects are behind schedule, beyond budget, and below projection.
- The Arithmetic of Uncertainty , which performs calculations with uncertain inputs, resulting in uncertain outputs from which you can calculate true average outcomes and the chances of achieving specified goals.
- How to create Interactive Simulations which may be shared with any Excel user without the need for add-ins or macros. The approach is just as at home in R, Python or any programming environment that supports arrays.