Introduction to Probability Management


Stanford School of Engineering


Probability management is the discipline of communicating and calculating uncertainties as auditable data arrays called Stochastic Information Packets or SIPs. This course provides a basic introduction to the subject.

This course assumes that you are comfortable with Microsoft Excel, but you do not need training in statistics. If you wish to receive a verified certificate, you must download the free SIPmath™ Modeler Tools for Excel from nonprofit, and it is recommended that you procure The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons, either the 1st or 2nd Edition.

What you will learn

  • How to recognize the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are represented by single numbers, usually an average. It explains why so many projects are behind schedule, beyond budget, and below projection.
  • The Arithmetic of Uncertainty , which performs calculations with uncertain inputs, resulting in uncertain outputs from which you can calculate true average outcomes and the chances of achieving specified goals.
  • How to create Interactive Simulations which may be shared with any Excel user without the need for add-ins or macros. The approach is just as at home in R, Python or any programming environment that supports arrays.

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Delivery Option:
Online Course Free

This course may not currently be available to learners in some states and territories.